Ahmed Mostafa
“This analysis is based on several highly-caliber experts views from within and outside Egypt”
To whom the US Jews will vote in the 2024 Presidential elections?
The 2024 Presidential elections will determine the voting preferences of US Jews, who have a diverse range of political beliefs and priorities. Traditionally, the Democratic Party has been seen as more supportive of Israel and Jewish interests than the Republican Party, but this perception has shifted in recent years. There is no monolithic Jewish view on the wars between Israel and Hezbollah, with some supporting military action and others being more cautious or opposed.
The history of US Jewish involvement in advocating for Israel’s security and defense is complex, and opinions within the Jewish community are diverse. Some US Jews may be more accepting of wars if they believe they are necessary for Israel’s security and survival, while others may be more critical of military action if they fear unnecessary loss of life or harm to civilians.
The outcome of the 2024 elections will depend on factors such as specific candidates, political climate, discourse, and evolving perspectives within the Jewish community. Rising antisemitism is reforging a sense of Jewish self-identity, especially among those who consider themselves fully assimilated and accepted in American mainstream culture. American Jews do not vote based on a single issue, but swing with the rest of the country around economic, war, peace, and other issues.
Netanyahu was desirous to attack Hezbollah next Friday 28th June 2024 within the Iranian presidential election
On June 28th, 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to attack Hezbollah to eliminate a significant threat to Israel’s security and advance his interests in the region. The upcoming Iranian presidential election presents an opportunity for Netanyahu to strike Hezbollah and impact Iran’s internal politics, achieving his strategic goals. However, recent developments have complicated his plans, as the US has postponed his scheduled visit to approve the attack.
The US government is concerned that the attack on Hezbollah could lead to a broader conflict in the Middle East, potentially causing instability and diverting attention from other global issues. The US energy industry also has an interest in maintaining stability in the Middle East, as disruptions in the supply chain could lead to higher energy prices, affecting the US economy. An attack on Hezbollah could have unintended consequences, such as retaliation from Iran, disrupting oil production and shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf.
Economically, the postponement is due to economic considerations, as Israel is an essential trading partner and significant investor in the US. A regional conflict could harm the US economy, especially if it affects American companies in the region. Additionally, a conflict in the Middle East could exacerbate inflation, unemployment, and energy prices, impacting voter sentiment and the outcome of elections.
The US government has decided to postpone Netanyahu’s visit to evaluate the potential risks and benefits of an attack on Hezbollah, reflecting the complex considerations involved in foreign policy decisions and the need to balance the interests of allies with the larger strategic objectives of the US.
Will the coming presidential elections in Iran next Friday affect the strong relations with Hezbollah and Palestinian Cause?
Iran’s upcoming presidential elections on Friday will have significant implications for its relationships with regional actors like Hezbollah and the Palestinian cause. Iran has long-standing alliances with various groups and movements in the Middle East, which have been a cornerstone of its foreign policy. Hezbollah, a Lebanese political party and militant group, has been one of Iran’s closest allies for decades, providing financial and military support. Iran has also been a key supporter of the Palestinian cause, providing financial and military support to various Palestinian groups and movements.
The outcome of the presidential elections will likely impact Iran’s ties with Hezbollah and the Palestinian cause. Conservative candidates, seen as more hawkish on foreign policy, are likely to maintain or strengthen Iran’s alliances with these groups. On the other hand, more moderate candidates may take a more conciliatory approach towards regional rivals, including Israel, which could potentially lead to a cooling of ties with these groups.
However, Iran’s relationships with Hezbollah and the Palestinian cause are deep-rooted and complex, shaped by factors such as geopolitical considerations, ideological affinities, and shared interests. While the elections may have some impact on these relationships, they are unlikely to fundamentally change them. The election results could provide insight into Iran’s future direction of regional strategy and its relationships with key allies and partners in the Middle East.
After Hezbollah Hoopoe operation last week against Israel, Israel and USA in a very difficult situation
The Hoopoe operation by Hezbollah has escalated tensions between Israel and the USA, causing a strategic situation. The operation involved a significant attack on Israel, sending a clear message to the international community, particularly to countries that have traditionally supported Israel. One such country is Cyprus, which Hezbollah has warned not to support Israel, avoiding previous negative experiences with neighboring countries attacking from friend’s territories. This warning could have significant implications for the geopolitical landscape in the region, as Cyprus has long been a key ally of Israel.
The ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, causing significant suffering and hardship for civilians, calls for a peaceful resolution. The international community, particularly the USA, has a crucial role to play in this situation. The USA, a key ally of Israel, must use its influence to encourage meaningful peace negotiations between Hezbollah and Israel.
The only way to achieve lasting peace in the region is through dialogue and diplomacy. The international community must come together to support a peaceful resolution and address the underlying issues that have caused the conflict, aiming to bring an end to suffering and build a more stable and secure future for the people of the region.
Will Netanyahu attack Lebanon despite all the US warnings from Hezbollah and the failure to achieve any success in Gaza since October 7th 2023?
The decision to attack Lebanon by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is uncertain due to the US warnings about Hezbollah and the potential for the conflict to escalate and destabilize the Middle East. Hezbollah, a Shi’a militant group based in Lebanon, has been a long-time adversary of Israel and has been involved in numerous conflicts and skirmishes with the Israeli military. The US has designated Hezbollah as a foreign terrorist organization, and there are concerns that the group possesses significant military capabilities.
Recent outbreaks of violence between Israel and Hezbollah, including rocket fire and military strikes, have the potential to escalate quickly, and a full-scale war could have devastating consequences for the region. The US and other international actors have called for a peaceful resolution and urged all parties to exercise restraint.
However, it is possible that Netanyahu may decide to attack Lebanon in response to perceived threats or provocations from Hezbollah. This decision would likely be influenced by factors such as Israel’s security considerations, domestic politics, and the broader geopolitical context in the Middle East. Israel’s military operations in Gaza since October 7th, 2023, have not been successful, which may influence Netanyahu’s decisions regarding a potential attack on Lebanon.
The possible negative consequences of a war between Israel and Hezbollah
The potential conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could have severe consequences for the Middle East and the global community. The Middle East is home to some of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves, and any conflict could disrupt the flow of these resources. Hezbollah’s close ties to Iran, a major exporter of oil and gas, could have a significant impact on the stability of the energy market.
If Iran and its allies, such as the AlHouthi in Yemen and AlHashd AlShaabi in Iraq, as well as Hamas and the ElQassam Brigades, become involved in the conflict, the disruption to oil and gas supplies could be even more severe. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for oil and gas, is located in the Persian Gulf, and any military action in the region could potentially disrupt traffic through the strait, leading to a significant increase in oil prices.
The Bab el-Mandeb strait, a strategic chokepoint for oil and gas shipments, could also be disrupted if Iran and its allies, such as the AlHouthi, close the strait, potentially leading to a significant increase in oil prices and a potential economic crisis. In conclusion, a war between Israel and Hezbollah, especially with the involvement of other regional players, could have severe negative consequences, particularly in terms of a disruption of oil and gas supplies, leading to a significant increase in oil prices and potential economic crisis.
What will be the behavior of Russia and China in case Israel attacked Lebanon?
In the event of an Israeli attack on Lebanon, Russia and China are likely to condemn the actions and support Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Russia has increased its military and political presence in the Middle East, and has developed strong ties with various actors, including Lebanon. In the event of an Israeli attack on Lebanon, Russia may use its diplomatic channels to de-escalate the situation and prevent further violence. It may also consider providing military support to Lebanon, in the form of arms sales or direct military intervention.
China, on the other hand, has traditionally taken a more low-key approach to Middle Eastern affairs, preferring to focus on economic and diplomatic engagement rather than military intervention. In the event of an Israeli attack on Lebanon, China is likely to condemn such actions in the strongest terms and call for an immediate ceasefire. It may also consider providing humanitarian assistance to Lebanon, in the form of aid or disaster relief. However, it is unlikely that China will consider direct military intervention in the conflict, preferring to use its diplomatic weight to bring about a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
Is Egypt ready economically for the war between Hezbollah and Israel now?
Egypt’s economy has seen significant growth, with a GDP growth rate of around 5.6% in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is uncertain whether Egypt is fully prepared to handle the economic implications of a war between Hezbollah and Israel, particularly in terms of energy. Egypt is a net energy importer, heavily reliant on natural gas. A war between Hezbollah and Israel could disrupt energy supplies, significantly impacting Egypt’s economy.
The tourism sector, which contributes around 12% of Egypt’s GDP, could be negatively affected by a war, leading to a decrease in tourists visiting the country due to perceived instability. This could result in a significant loss of revenue for the Egyptian government and private sector.
Another concern is the potential impact on Egypt’s trade relations, which could be disrupted by a war between Hezbollah and Israel, leading to decreased exports and imports. The cost of military preparations and potential involvement in the war could also strain Egypt’s economy, potentially diverting funds away from critical areas like education, healthcare, and infrastructure development.
