By: Mr. Ahmed Moustafa
Egyptian Economist and International Youth Coach
Director of Asia Center for Studies and Translation
Asia Center for Studies and Translation – Directed by Ahmed Moustafa (wordpress.com)
Master Holder in Political Economy 2021, HSE Moscow
Member of CODESRIA, Dakar, Senegal and Group of Strategic Vision
Russia and Islamic World, Journalists Against Extremism
Cellphone: +201009229411
Email: solimon2244@yahoo.com
ahmedmoustafa830@gmail.com
Introduction
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2014, the 2017 Minsk Protocol has been a framework for leaders to discuss a potential solution. The conflict has been characterized by diplomacy, sanctions, and armed fighting, with neither side achieving a clear victory. Despite this, both parties have pledged to the peace process. Two possible resolution scenarios include reaching an immediate peace agreement, where both parties surrender their weapons in exchange for demilitarization of disputed areas, or an international platform for talks, such as the United Nations or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. However, the West has been trying to break Russia’s heart against Putin, resulting in excessive sanctions and support for Ukraine’s counterattack. This has led to the continuation of the armed conflict, with the possibility of a decisive victory. This would be disastrous for the region and could lead to more armed conflict in the future. As the conflict continues, it is crucial for all parties must demonstrate their commitment to peace and work towards a quick and just resolution that maintains stability in the region.
The West sanctions (Scenario A) versus Russia failed after the war in Ukraine, why?
The war in Ukraine has significantly impacted the failure of Western sanctions against Russia. The war has left the Ukrainian economy in ruins and increased political instability, weakening the effectiveness of sanctions. The war has also increased military and political tensions between the West and Russia, making the West wary of punitive measures. The war has also highlighted weak enforcement of existing sanctions against Russia, creating an impression that Western powers are unwilling to take a firm stance against Russia’s aggressive actions. The limited success of economic sanctions against Russia has also weakened the credibility of the sanctions. The war also underscores the ineffectiveness of international institutions like the United Nations in resolving conflicts, further undermining the potential for effective sanctions against Russia.
The Ukrainian Counter Attack (Scenario B) in 2023 summer versus Russia failed, why?
In 2023, tensions between Ukraine and Russia have escalated, with the conflict centered in Donbas. The Ukrainian government initiated a Counter-Attack for the Summer 2023 campaign to drive Russian forces out of the region. However, the campaign faced challenges due to logistics, outdated equipment, and increasing supply chain vulnerability. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) needed to secure operational manpower and equipment to operate efficiently, especially against the fortified Russian troops. The Russians had fewer complications or constraints in preparing for battle, giving them a tactical and psychological advantage over the Ukrainian troops. Externalities, such as political, financial, and military aid from Western states, further exacerbated the situation. Russia capitalized on this weakness, disrupting the AFU on the battlefield and blocking information flows between battlefields and strategic locations. These factors made it increasingly difficult for the AFU to plan and execute their offensive in Donbas. Kobzar and Zolotukhin’s (2018) claims about the campaign’s failure have been widely accepted.
Putin managed to impose (Scenario C) on the West to settle the War in Ukraine
The War in Ukraine has been characterized by aggression and strong opposition from the Western world. Russian leader Vladimir Putin has imposed a “Scenario C” to force the West to negotiate with him. This scenario involved pro-Russian forces taking over major cities in the Donbas region, causing significant international criticism. Western countries were forced to accept the situation and negotiate with Putin for a peaceful settlement. The imposition of Scenario C has undermined the West’s stance against Russia, weakening international organizations like the United Nations, European Union, and NATO. The war has also impacted the Ukrainian economy and citizens, leading to a drop in GDP and unemployment rates. The global balance of power has been affected, with countries with territorial disputes with Russia recognizing Putin’s aggressive tactics. The destruction of Ukraine is seen as a conflict between the West and Russian nationalism, with Russia having a clear advantage.
The energy weapon in the Ukrainian war gave Putin the upper hand
The use of energy weapons by the Russian military in the Ukrainian War has allowed President Putin to have the upper hand in the conflict. The ability to disrupt power grids and cause blackouts across the country has made it much easier for the Russian forces to gain an advantage and control territory more quickly. Furthermore, the use of energy weapons has also disrupted the defenses of the Ukrainian army and left them unable to adequately protect certain regions and villages from the Russian onslaught. In addition to this, a widespread lack of access to food, water, and fuel has resulted in a critical humanitarian crisis in certain parts of Ukraine, leaving the country less able to respond to aggression from the Russian forces. The use of energy weapons in the Ukrainian War has given President Putin a powerful tool in the conflict and enabled him to gain a strong advantage in the conflict.
OPEC Plus Undermines Western Sanctions on Russia
OPEC Plus, a strategic alliance between OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing nations, has significantly challenged Western sanctions on Russia. Established in 2016, the alliance aims to stabilize global oil prices by reducing oil production. The inclusion of non-OPEC actors, particularly Russia, has enhanced the alliance’s control over the oil market. OPEC Plus’s ability to undermine Western sanctions on Russia is attributed to collective action, which allows member nations to pool resources and coordinate policies, supporting economic challenges due to sanctions. Russia has leveraged its collective bargaining power within the global oil market and leveraged its large share of global oil production to negotiate strategic cooperation with other influential players, diminishing the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia. OPEC Plus has also supported Russia’s economic resilience through strategic production cuts, maintaining oil prices at favorable levels and enabling it to sustain economic growth despite Western sanctions. The alliance’s geopolitical significance extends beyond economic factors, as it has fostered stronger ties between Russia and China, resulting in various economic, political, and military cooperations.
In conclusion, The war in Ukraine has significantly impacted Western sanctions against Russia, causing political instability, weakened sanctions, and highlighting the inability of international organizations to resolve conflicts. The Ukrainian Counter-Attack of the Summer of 2023 failed due to logistical vulnerabilities, limited arms supply chains, and a lack of operational manpower. Russian forces exploited these issues with greater firepower, external support, and psychological tactics. Putin’s “Scenario C” has weakened the international community’s stance against Russia and impacted the global balance of power. This scenario has benefited Putin and Russia, weakened both the West and Ukraine, and has significant implications for the global balance of power. OPEC Plus has effectively countered Western sanctions on Russia by leveraging its collective bargaining power, economic resilience, and diversification strategies. This has enabled Russia to navigate challenges and demonstrate the intelligence of OPEC Plus member states.
