Analysis: Ahmed Moustaf
Director of the Asia Center for Studies and Translation
Member of CODESRIA.org – Dakar, Senegal
Group of Strategic Vision Russia and Islamic World
Master in Political Economy and Russian Studies – HSE, Moscow
Several files failed to be presented by Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary of State when he went to visit the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, less than a day after he chaired the American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) after he deluded the attendees into completing the file of normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv – not to mention that Blinken for the uninitiated is (Jew of religion) And of course, it is in his interest to serve the interests of global Zionism, including the interests of Israel, which is in trouble in the region after their recent defeat by the Palestinian resistance groups, then the Muhammad Salah operation, and finally the Lebanese Kafr Foua – and before that the announcement of the normalization of Iranian-Saudi relations under Chinese administration and Omani-Iraqi mediation.
Likewise, President Erdogan won the Turkish presidency for the third time, with almost tension in US relations in the Middle East with NATO’s largest partner (Turkey) and a failed attempt by America and Europe to support the Turkish opposition versus Erdogan in the recent elections. And he is the one who has become closer to the new powers in the region that stand behind him (Russia, China, and of course, Iran), to the detriment of more and more American interests.
For review, the reception was not as warm as Blinken had expected in Jeddah, as was his boss (Biden) last year, who failed to create the so-called (Arab NATO against Iran) – and almost the Saudis were aware of what was done in AIPAC and were ready for all files and proposals related to it – not only that Last Tuesday, Blinken’s pro-Israel visit coincided with the opening day of the Iranian embassy in Riyadh, after 7 years of closure and estrangement, and it was the first slap he received during his visit to Saudi Arabia.
Saudi diplomacy, which has come to surprise us daily with its professionalism, played a significant role in this visit. Many thanks to the Minister (Bin Farhan), and of course to the young Saudi Crown Prince (Mohammed bin Salman) for this wonderful new path that satisfies all Arabs, Muslims, and even the South in the world.
Calmly and steadfastly, (Bin Farhan) replied to his counterpart (Blinken) that the file (normalization with the entity) is not currently included in our agenda unless Israel adheres to the Arab initiative presented by Saudi Arabia in Beirut in 2002, which requires giving the usurped rights of the Palestinians, and declaring a two-state solution between entity and Palestine.
Not to mention the economic situation in America – with the raising of the debt ceiling, which according to the US public debt clock reached 31.5 trillion dollars, as every American citizen became indebted to about $ 95,000 – Blinken tried to dissuade the Kingdom, as one of the founders of OPEC, from the issue of reducing production, which comes in favor of The new powers (China, Russia, and Iran) at the expense of the old powers (America and Europe) – but he failed.
Any further hike in energy prices in America will lead to a major social imbalance, as well as raising the interest rate by the Federal Reserve to try to solve the inflation crisis will lead to other major problems because this means as long as we are not on welfare conditions, the real value of deposits in American banks will diminish with the possibility of bankruptcy of other banks. As there is a lack of trust between the American citizen and the ruling regime with its two parties and lobbies, especially the arms lobby, which corresponds to the withdrawal of deposits of health care and retirement funds for US government employees in support of the government and its programs despite its failure.
The remarkable thing is the transition of the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Russia from the stage of (complete submission) until the time of the former president (Trump) who tried to milk the Gulf countries – to the stage of equality, which began to take shape since the Kingdom took a firm stance with the Canadian interventions in 2018 – Also, an attempt to use the incident of the journalist (Jamal Khashoggi) to put the Saudi crown prince and his administration under maximum pressure, despite his close relationship with the Trump administration.
This made him turn East with hands outstretched with respect, non-interference, and desire for cooperation, beginning with Russia and China at the end of 2018, and finally, Iran because these countries do not fail their friends, and Turkey and Qatar are the biggest witnesses to these respectful positions of the new powers in the world.
Likewise, Blinken did not express any dissatisfaction with the recent developments regarding the three files of normalization with Iran, as well as the return of Syria to the Arab League, and the territorial integrity of Yemen – perhaps there was a fear of the expected Saudi revenge by Muhammad bin Salman towards Biden and America, after this old man waved, who always fails in front of the cameras, by imposing sanctions on Saudi Arabia, and therefore Muhammad bin Salman preempted the story and grabbed Biden’s aching hand.
Saudi Arabia has become an influential party in the new world order, and its actions are gaining the approval of everyone.
Oppositely, the German economy is experiencing financial problems for the first time in nearly a decade – and these problems must be resolved by the three opposing parties to the ruling coalition.
Official figures showed that Germany had officially entered recession, with economic output falling by 0.3% during the first quarter of the year with the second consecutive quarter of a decline in GDP. The drop is largely due to lower consumer spending due to higher prices amid inflation that is said to be only 7.2%, although most neutral German experts say it may be twice that.
This adds to the pressure already existing on the trio of coalition partners in the Berlin government to cut costs. The environmental Greens want to invest more in things like climate protection by taxing the rich – a prospect rejected by the Liberal Democrats, who want more liberalization.
In the middle, the Social Democrats, headed by Chancellor / Olaf Scholz, hope that attracting skilled foreign labor and investing in new green industries will lead to growth, without explaining how to achieve this elusive dream – given that the Germans, with all the green pressure, are now using brown coal, the most polluting environment, according to reports.
“The outlook for the German economy is very good,” Schultz claims.
But Robert Habeck, deputy chancellor of Schulz and economics minister from the Greens party, warned earlier that Germany faces potential budget cuts of up to €22 billion next year, the first time in many years that the federal budget has been reduced.
Fights are expected to flare up over how to mitigate the country’s financial problems within the ruling coalition, the latest of which is a controversial ban on heating oil and gas in homes that have pushed Germany to the brink of a government crisis. The last time Berlin had to make such tough decisions to cut the budget was in 2014 after the global financial crisis.
Finance minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner warned this week that the government needed to prepare for “tough” negotiations over next year’s budget, while also pushing to boost the economy by cutting red tape as well as attracting more investment and skilled workers. It would put Germany “at risk” of falling behind in international competition. And Germany’s entry into recession causes problems for the eurozone and the broader European Union, which depend on Germany.
Lindner and his FDP team argue that Germany has no other choice but to cut costs: it predicts a €30 billion shortfall in tax income over the next few years as the economy suffers the consequences of the Russian war in Ukraine, including higher energy prices and lower rates of investment.
Another major problem is high-interest rates, which is affecting the remaining fiscal grace period: compared to 2021, when Germany had to pay only €3.9 billion in interest on its debt, this year it is expected that this expenditure will reach €39.9 billion by ten times as much.
“For too long, we lived well on artificially low-interest rates. Now, in a completely different economic environment and in a very different interest rate environment, we have the task of returning to healthy public finances and sustaining them over the long term,” Lindner asserts.
Since the formation of the tripartite government in 2021, Scholz has resolved funding disputes by creating special support funds outside the regular budget, including €200 billion in controversial cash to cut gas and energy prices for citizens and businesses, as well as €60 billion for the Climate Fund. To help achieve environmental goals. But these so-called shadow budgets are huge, and the parties do not want to add to them — €360bn last year, or 75% of this year’s €476bn regular budget (the private money will be paid out) over several years.
Individual ministries have also shown little willingness to cut costs. On the contrary, they have asked for an additional €70 billion in next year’s budget to accommodate a range of special requests: instead of more money to support children and climate protection, more money to modernize Germany’s armed forces and achieve NATO’s defense spending target of 2%.
“This will be the toughest budget in 10 years,” Dennis Ruddy, budget spokesperson for Schultz’s Social Democrats, told Politico.
His Green counterpart, Sven-Christian Kindler, said the government should invest more money in issues such as climate protection, which should be financed through a better and fairer tax policy that puts more responsibility on the shoulders of the rich.
Otto Frick, the budget spokesman for the Free Democratic Party, argued that the planned budget for next year, despite the cuts, would still be much higher than before the coronavirus pandemic: economic growth in the past few years has allowed Germany to expand its regular budget.
Unfortunately, the main problem appears in the failure to correct the banking and financial path in Germany, which is linked to the US Federal Reserve, despite all the sins committed by the Federal Reserve and quantitative easing, which caused the horrific financial fall in 2008, the effects of which are still extending until now and have not been addressed.
As well as escaping interest rates and carrying out formal technical reforms so that inflation becomes within the limits of 2% annually, and this is impossible for many years – and this is a reminder, as well as succumbing to manipulation of interest rates that ruined many clients in the West in particular. Due to the ignorance of citizens in the West about financial and banking matters, how they are managed, and media misinformation on these immoral matters to support the plans of Western regimes – to avoid protests.
Be guided accordingly.
