Analised by: Ahmed Moustafa
Director of the Asia Center for Studies and Translation
Member of CODESRIA.org – Dakar, Senegal
Group of Strategic Vision Russia and Islamic World
Master in Political Economy and Russian Studies – HSE, Moscow
Significance of Turkey in Terms of Position, Power, and Alliances
Turkey enjoys a strategic location in the heart of the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean, which allows it to act as a bridge between East and West. It has close ties with many countries and is a regional power with a significant presence in the region since the Ottoman Empire. In addition to strong alliances in the Middle East, it is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). As a key member of the United Nations and a leader within the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and founder of the Islamic Development Group of 8. Turkey plays a major role in international diplomacy and security, and we should not forget also that Turkey is one of the 20 most important economies in the world and a member of the Economic Group of Twenty, and a candidate to enter the BRICS Plus group with Egypt and Iran from the Middle East.
As a key member of the United Nations and a leader within the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Turkey plays a key role in international diplomacy and security. With a rapidly growing economy, Turkey is becoming more influential in the Middle East and the world. It has become an important factor in the geopolitics of the region due to its close relations with both countries in the region and around the world.
Turkey’s geopolitical importance has been highlighted in its decades-long membership in NATO and its rising importance in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Its strong ties with countries in the Middle East, in particular, have been instrumental in mediating conflicts and providing stability. Furthermore, its strategic position in the Eastern Mediterranean has allowed it to be a regional leader in the fight against terrorism, as well as an important contributor to international efforts in fighting terrorism.
Turkey is also a key partner for the United States and the European Union, China, and Russia in terms of economic and political integration of the region. Turkey’s position and power have positioned it as an important and influential player in regional and global affairs.
Accordingly, it was necessary to talk about the future of Turkey with the arrival of President Erdogan to the office of the presidency again, due to its great influence on the region, the continents of Asia, Europe, the eastern Mediterranean region, and even the world, and whether the Turkish economy will rise again as it was with the first decade of the twenty-first century.
In order to answer the main question, it was necessary to communicate with some specialized Turkish experts:
Among them, the following Messrs:-
Mr. Ahmet Özkolay (Colonel in the Turkish Army) – Dr. Omid Nazmy (PhD researcher in international relations and correspondent for international channels from Moscow) – Mr. Uzeyir Azik (Turkish businessman) – Mr. Kenan Aydin (businessman and member of parliament) – Mr. Omar Merat Teleoglu (Turkish researcher in international relations and works in trade)
The five have different political and economic orientations – some of them voted for Mr. / Erdogan and some of them voted for / Kildasdar Oglu – and some of them did not vote for either this or that.
The main question I raised about the future of the Turkish economy with Erdogan as president:
The debate took place among experts in general, and this does not spoil the love and friendship between us, about the Turkish economic future and that “the inflation rate, public debt and the exchange rate of the Turkish lira” are at their worst levels, and this has a very negative impact on the Turkish economy, which deserves to be in the best position. Therefore, we have to wait to see the next economic policy of the winning President Erdogan.
But certainly, we agreed on the beauty of the Turkish electoral scene and the democratic wedding – despite my objection to the word democracy because all members of society can only reach power through effective relations either with politicians through political parties or oligarchs of influential businessmen in politics. As well as the deep state – in order to be clear from the beginning.
Some talked about the existence of some corruption in Erdogan’s regime, its reliance on people of trust and relatives in high positions, giving members of the Justice and Development Party priority even in loans and bank credits, distancing themselves from Turkish experts and professionals, and not treating them reciprocally with the rest of the Turkish people.
Others talked about Erdogan being the strong, most trusted, and most experienced leader as president of Turkey because it is a large country with influence and influence in the world, and that what Erdogan is doing in terms of giving trustworthy people also happens in all parts of the world, including Japan, America, and Europe, as he has not made an innovation in that. And that anyone will use those who trust them and know them for fear of making mistakes.
Likewise, the imbalances that occurred in the Turkish economy are not new today, but rather (internal reasons), such as that the last three months there was perhaps a gray area for intense mobilization between (the government and the opposition) with regard to the presidency and parliament. Therefore, there were no decisive economic decisions for the convergence of the polls. Sometimes there were some opinion polls assigning the opposition to win the elections by a large percentage of up to 60%. This was preceded last February by the devastating earthquake that occurred recently, which greatly pressured the public budget and public spending. It was preceded by the Corona pandemic, the state of closure, and the great pressure on the budget to provide energy for about 92% of the population (citizens, immigrants, and refugees).
The point of refugees and immigrants was also a matter of controversy among experts (as an external and regional cause) pressing on the Turkish economy because the official figures refer to about 5.5 million refugees – while some claim that the unofficial number reaches twice this number and the relationship of this number to consumption and the rights of refugees and also to the issue of unemployment, which reached about 10% in Turkey, according to official estimates.
Also among the external reasons is Turkey’s departure in 2018 from the umbrella of the Monetary Fund and the failure to adhere to floating the Turkish currency with the failure to raise bank interest rates and inflation after the Corona pandemic as well as the Ukrainian crisis and the earthquake (is inevitable) because there is an increasing demand for goods and products, whether produced internally or imported from the outside.
However, some of Erdogan’s opponents have a fair view that he is truly a statesman in international and external relations and does not imagine that anyone will replace him in that.
Spending on electoral campaigns in Turkey is a significant figure
It is hard to estimate the amount of money that will be spent on the election campaigns as the number of competitors, prominent political players, and other influential figures in the political scene are unknown, yet we can predict that the figure will be staggering. If we take a look at the previous elections held in Turkey, we can see that the local elections of 2014 were allocated about 6 billion TL, and the general elections of 2018 were allocated about 10 billion TL and the inflation rate was 17% at the time. This figure is likely to be much higher in the 2023 elections when inflation has reached 44%, with estimates possibly reaching 25 billion TL.
Funding for election campaigns typically comes from various sources, such as the government, wealthy individuals, the business sector, and independent organizations. Candidates also often receive donations from ordinary citizens who can make individual donations of up to a few thousand Turkish Lira in natural persons in the Presidential and Parliamentary electoral campaigns.
This means that in addition to the billions of lira allocated by the government, many billions more could be spent by competing parties and candidates in an effort to win over the electorate. All in all, it is certain that the 2023 Turkish general election campaigns will be the most expensive to date, with the potential to exceed the total budget of the previous general election.
The problems of the Turkish economy are summarized in the following:-
1- Inflation, trade deficit, and the labor force:
The Turkish economy has faced multiple economic problems over the past few years. One of the main economic problems is spiraling inflation. With inflation reaching a staggering 17.1%, it is becoming increasingly difficult for wages to keep up with rising prices for goods and services. The Turkish lira also witnessed a sharp depreciation. This led to an increase in the amount of debt in the economy and an increase in the cost of imported goods.
Another major problem facing the Turkish economy is the large trade deficit. With exports making up only 25% of the economy and imports making up the rest, Turkey imports more than it exports which makes it difficult to maintain its competitiveness in the international market. In addition, the government was spending more than it was earning making it difficult to balance the budget.
Finally, the Turkish economy also has to grapple with structural challenges. For example, the Turkish workforce is not as productive as those in other countries, which leads to a lack of innovation and efficiency. The banking sector also fails to provide adequate financing to companies, which leads to underinvestment in research and innovation. All these economic problems make it difficult for the Turkish economy to achieve economic growth and prosperity.
2- The refugees crisis in Turkey pressing on the economy
The refugee crisis in Turkey is a significant challenge that is putting pressure on the country’s economy. As the largest refugee-hosting country in the world, Turkey currently hosts more than 5.5 million refugees from Syria, Iraq, Central Asia, and Africa. The monetary cost of hosting refugees is a huge strain on Turkey’s narrow economic resources.
In 2017, Turkey had to spend more than $31 billion on refugees and asylum seekers in the country, including food, housing, public health, education, health care, social services, and cash and in-kind support.
This large influx of refugees has also had an impact on the Turkish labor market, which has seen an increase in both the number of informal work opportunities and unregulated wage increases for some professions. This challenges the government in terms of economic stability, as these types of labor market distortions can lead to inflation and lower government revenues.
In addition, the security situation has deteriorated in certain areas of the country where a large number of Syrian refugees reside, which has led to a decline in economic activity in those areas. This has put more pressure on the economy. Despite these challenges, the Turkish government is working hard to ensure the continued growth and stability of its economy and to provide the necessary resources for refugees.
3- Turkey’s recent earthquake exacerbated the Turkish economic situation
The recent earthquake in Turkey has caused a huge deficit in the Turkish economy. The magnitude of the quakes and the resulting destruction has taken its toll on the country’s populated cities, resulting in an estimated 10 largest cities affected, including Istanbul, Ankara, and Antalya, being severely damaged. Furthermore, thousands of people have been displaced due to the earthquake, and the death toll continues to rise. In addition to this, the destruction of infrastructure, especially related to the tourism industry, has put an immense strain on the country’s economy as the country relied heavily on this sector to help sustain itself.
In terms of the economic impact, the Turkish Central Bank declared that the damage from the earthquakes could weaken the country’s credit rating, as the damage is estimated to be close to $34 billion. This could put the country in a difficult position for the following years, as Turkey’s tourism industry was already on the decline in prior years.
The earthquake has also caused significant damage to oil and gas pipelines and electricity networks, which further damages the country’s finances. Furthermore, this disruption has caused the weakening of the Turkish Lira and has caused an immense drop in Turkish stock market prices, which further reduces the economic power of the country. This could be a major obstacle for the future of the Turkish economy, as it is likely to be an ongoing issue, not only in terms of damage and rebuilding but also in the longer-term economic implications of the disaster.
4- Problems of interest, currency, inflation, and monetary reserves in the Turkish economy
In his speeches, Erdogan describes interest, the exchange rate of the lira, and inflation as a “triangle of evil,” and stresses that everyone “at home and abroad has come to see that Turkey will not submit to this triangle.”
Foreign exchange reserves fell to record levels in the week preceding the elections, reaching $60 billion and $815 million.
The lira’s decline, according to experts, is attributed to political and economic instability and the resort to buying foreign currencies, as well as high inflation due to costly bills for energy imports (to meet 95% of the country’s needs at the time), especially at the time of the Corona pandemic. The decrease in reserves is also attributed to government spending to deal with the crises that struck Turkey, from Corona to the earthquake, in addition to the efforts of the Turkish Central Bank to support the lira and stabilize the exchange rate.
According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, the Turkish economy grew by 5.6% in 2022, exceeding expectations, compared to a slowdown in growth to 3.5% in the last quarter of it. While the Turkish economy is renewed and is characterized by high quality and diversity in production, the use of modern technologies in it, the youth population density, and the quality of craftsmen, so there is a trend towards the Turkish market as an alternative to the Chinese one.
The unemployment rate in Turkey has reached 10%, but this does not mean that there are no jobs, but there are jobs that Turkish youth do not prefer, which may appeal to immigrants more, and the second reason is refugees who work for lower wages.
Whereas Erdogan and his government had promised, in the event of victory, to implement the following:
Allowing the opening of accounts for “Turkish Lira deposits protected from exchange rate fluctuations” at the end of 2021, as it guarantees that the lira depositor will not fall victim to exchange rate fluctuations, and obtain the declared interest, in addition to the difference in the dollar price between the times of deposit and withdrawal.
Intensifying energy discoveries to reduce dependence on its imports. Indeed, Erdogan announced his country’s recent discovery of natural gas in the Black Sea, oil in the Gabar region of Sirnak state, and the establishment of huge solar energy fields in Konya state.
A regular increase in the minimum wage in the public and private sectors, and next July the increase for public sector employees will reach 45% (as Erdogan announced, bringing the minimum to 15,000 /ira if he wins), i.e. less than the inflation rate expected at the time, so that the citizen will not be a victim.
Despite the current economic weaknesses, Erdogan has the following opportunities and strengths
1- Turkey as a hub of Russian energy
Turkey is one of the most strategically located countries in the world, a bridge between East and West, and it is increasingly taking a leading role in the global energy market. With its unique geographic position, Turkey is well-positioned to become an international hub for the sale of Russian energy.
This is especially true in light of the recent developments in the energy industry, such as the development of natural gas pipelines from Russia to Turkey and the expansion of the Turkish power grid. These developments have enabled Turkey to be a major player in the global energy market, with the potential to become a major hub for the sale of Russian energy.
In addition, Turkey is already home to several key energy projects, such as the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline and the Turkish Stream Pipeline. The combination of these projects has the potential to make Turkey a major player in the global energy market, and a hub for the sale of Russian energy.
Turkey is also home to a number of energy companies, such as the Turkish Petroleum Corporation and the Turkish Electricity Network, which can help facilitate the sale of Russian energy. Furthermore, the country has a number of agreements with Russia, such as the Black Sea Gas Pipeline, which can help facilitate the sale of Russian energy. All of these factors make Turkey an attractive destination for the sale of Russian energy, and an ideal international hub for the sale of Russian energy.
Turkey is looking to benefit greatly from Russia becoming the Eurasian Energy Hub. Russia has the potential to increase both its regional and global influence by providing an efficient, reliable, and integrated system of energy resources across the Eurasian continent. By becoming an energy hub, Russia is expected to enable the development of energy infrastructure for countries in the region, including Turkey.
This development of infrastructure is expected to help open new opportunities for trade, investment, and energy security for Turkey, as well as the other countries in the region. Furthermore, Russia has the potential to provide an affordable and reliable source of energy to Turkey, enabling the country to reduce its energy import costs. This will be further beneficial to Turkey’s economy and allow the country to keep energy costs low and energy supplies stable.
Additionally, Russia could also provide access to new energy technology and know-how, which can help Turkey become more energy efficient. With these prospects, it is expected that Turkey will be able to rely on Russia as a secure and reliable partner in the energy sector, both inside and outside of the region.
2- Turkey and China will share greater cooperation
With the two countries now both having a population of over 1 billion people and a combined GDP of over $6 trillion, China and Turkey have become two of the largest economies in the world. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the economies of both countries have grown significantly, both in terms of GDP and trade volume. As part of this process, the two countries have looked to strengthen economic ties to boost mutually beneficial interdependence. In 2016, the two countries signed the Strategic Cooperation Agreement which officially established a partnership for promoting mutual interests through political, economic, and social collaboration. This agreement has recently been renewed with a similar focus to deepen friendly relations further.
In the coming years, China and Turkey aim to continue strengthening economic cooperation to take advantage of each other’s strengths. In 2020, the two countries signed the Free Trade Agreement which seeks to eliminate tariffs and other trade barriers, promote equal competitive conditions, and open up new markets and opportunities.
This agreement broadly covers areas such as goods, services, investment, and intellectual property rights. As part of this collaboration, both countries are also jointly working on unique projects such as a high-speed rail between China and Istanbul which is expected to reduce travel time between the two countries by nearly 90%.
Further projects on the horizon include increasing investment cooperation, especially in areas like renewable energy and green technologies, simplifying customs processes, and expanding financial services which will allow for an increased flow of capital. With the two countries also sharing common interests such as regional peace, security, and sustainable energy, both sides are increasingly looking to collaborate on a number of development projects in the upcoming years.
The countries are looking forward to the successful implementation of the “2023 China-Turkey 2023 Economic Year” in which both sides agreed to strengthen mutual economic ties and explore further opportunities for synergistic growth. As the two countries approach a deeper relationship and further interaction in the future, it is expected that the economic cooperation between China and Turkey will bring the two countries to a closer level of cooperation with higher levels of connectivity and increased mutual benefits.
3- Turkey and Un-dollarization
Turkey has been suffering from the US dollar’s unrelenting surge and is now planning a shift toward yuan-denominated trade in a bid to reduce dependence on the US currency. The move comes as a consequence of Washington increasing pressure on Ankara by imposing economic sanctions which have eroded domestic confidence and severely affected the purchasing power of the Turkish lira. In order to reduce its susceptibility to dollars, Turkey is increasingly relying on yuan-denominated transactions for its imports with Chinese suppliers and is developing joint strategies with China to manage the rising financial crisis.
The strategy would shift the bulk of its imports away from the dollar, consequently providing a level of trade stability and cushioning the Turkish lira from the ever-rising dollar’s value. Turkey is not alone in its move to the yuan, as other nations around the world are also transitioning to reduce their reliance on US dollars as well. In addition to this, there has been a sudden rise in the demand for Chinese bonds as investors look for refuge from the volatile dollar-dominated markets. This shift in trade could lead to an emergence of a multi-trading system as countries move away from the US dollar, giving rise to new opportunities for developing countries like Turkey.
4- Turkey and Iran Economic Cooperation
Turkey and Iran have a long history of economic cooperation stemming from the Silk Road, becoming even closer in the face of sanctions imposed by Western countries against both countries. Both countries have taken a number of steps to fuel prosperity for their citizens and increase economic cooperation.
This has been advantageous for both countries, reducing the economic impact of the sanctions they face from the West. One such step has been the recent establishment of a free trade zone (FTZ) between the two countries, which will serve as a platform for Turkey and Iran to maximize trade and economic ties.
This FTZ aims to create a conducive business environment that will facilitate increased trade between the two countries while allowing investors to have easier access to both nations’ markets. The FTZ will provide Turkey and Iran with increased job opportunities while opening multiple new channels of trade.
It also serves as a crucial part of Turkey and Iran’s economic partnership, as they share a common understanding of important trade issues such as intellectual property rights and customs duties. As Turkey and Iran continue to reinforce their ties, both countries will be able to benefit significantly from increased economic cooperation.
5- Turkey is a potential member of the BRICS Plus
Turkey has emerged as a potential member of the BRICS Plus group, which refers to the extension of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) economic and financial partnership. Since the late 2000s, BRICS has emerged as an important regional and global player in the economy, financial markets, and geopolitical affairs.
Turkey’s inclusion in BRICS Plus could help further solidify the group’s presence on the international stage. Turkey is a country characterized by strong regional ties and shared interests. Their inclusion in BRICS Plus would create an opportunity to strengthen BRICS’s international diplomatic standing and regional influence. The participation of Turkey could also further broaden and diversify the agenda of BRICS Plus, especially on energy and security.
Additionally, the presence of Turkey could help tie together BRICS and the Middle East region, thus strengthening cooperation and collaboration among certain BRICS countries and Middle East governments. In addition, the participation of Turkey in BRICS Plus could help provide much-needed support to the economies of both countries.
Turkey has suffered from economic stagnation and weak growth; the inclusion of both countries in BRICS Plus could help shore up their respective economies and provide further financial and investment opportunities. Ultimately, Turkey’s inclusion in BRICS Plus could prove to be a win-win situation for all involved.
6- The significance of resuming the normal relations between Turkey and Egypt
The resumption of normal relations between Turkey and Egypt has come as a major boost to progress and development in the Middle East. With two such powerful states so close to each other, both can offer invaluable support to bring about positive changes to the whole region.
The potential benefits are far-reaching as an improved relationship between the two countries means that each can now leverage its strengths to bolster the other and help each other prosper. For instance, Turkey and Egypt could collaborate on a variety of economic initiatives, such as strengthening trade, investing in each other’s infrastructure, and developing bilateral investment projects.
In addition, the Turkish and Egyptian governments can now work together to promote collaborative efforts in regional security. By pooling resources to fire up joint management information systems, combat terrorism, strengthen cyber-security, and even plan economic cooperation projects, both countries will be able to collaborate and provide a more secure and prosperous environment for everyone.
Finally, the re-establishment of diplomatic ties between Turkey and Egypt are significant for the region’s political situation. Historic tensions have divided the region for too long, and the normalization of relations between these two countries will set a positive example of peaceful coexistence and promote peace within the region.
The positive ramifications of improved relations between Turkey and Egypt, in both economic and political terms, cannot be overstated. Ultimately, the resumption of normal relations will lead to a safer, more prosperous Middle East, allowing people from both sides of the divide to benefit.
7- Better Future between Turkey and Syria and Armenia
For far too long, the relationship between Turkey, Syria, and Armenia has been strained. Turkey, Syria, and Armenia are all located in an area of the world that carries deep historical and cultural significance, as well as the potential to create increased cooperation between the three nations. In order for this to occur, there needs to be better communication and understanding between the countries, which can lead to an improved future for all.
One way to achieve this is through increased access to education, which can help to bridge gaps between cultures and build an understanding of shared experiences, values, and beliefs between the countries. Education allows for increased knowledge and understanding in regard to the politics, culture, and history of Turkey, Syria, and Armenia, which can bring about a more unified and cooperative future. Additionally, fostering relationships via trade, foreign investment, and tourism can bring Turkey, Syria, and Armenia closer together.
By promoting mutual economic benefit and by embracing global cultures and peoples, nations have an opportunity to strengthen their relationships while also increasing the economic competitiveness of the region. Finally, greater international and regional cooperation is essential between Turkey, Syria, and Armenia in order to further cooperation between the countries. Working together, the nations can use diplomacy, cross-cultural exchanges, and increased dialogue to bring nations closer together, which can help create a better future that is prosperous and secure for all.
8- Turkey’s presence in Africa
Turkey is one of the countries in the African continent that has had a presence in the region for centuries and has an established diplomatic dialogue. The Republic of Turkey’s first steps in Africa came after it declared its independence in 1923. Ankara began to expand its activities in Africa starting with relations with African countries in the 1960s.
In the 1970s and 1980s, the focus of Turkey’s foreign policy was on strengthening cooperation with African countries. Since then, Turkey’s relations with African nations have deepened with an expanded scope of development projects and growth in bilateral trade. There has been an increasing number of agreements and programs based on mutual understanding and constructive dialogue between Turkey and African countries.
Turkey’s role in Africa has increased in recent decades, partly stemming from its active economic and trade ties in the region and its commitment to supporting African development initiatives. In the 21st century, Turkey has deepened its presence in the African continent. It has become an increasingly active member of international organizations such as the African Development Bank, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, and the World Trade Organization, all of which help to further strengthen Existing ties between Turkey and African nations.
Turkey also participates in various multilateral and bilateral activities to assist African countries in fields such as health, education, agriculture, transport, energy, and security. Turkey no longer sees aid and development as a one-way street, but rather it is now ready to invest in long-term projects and partnerships to ensure mutual benefit for both sides.
As a result of this, there is an increase in the number of cooperation and dialogue among African countries that have been engaged in projects and discussions with Turkey, yielding positive results. Turkey has become a major trade partner with many African countries, providing a much-needed boost to the African economy.
Trade between Turkey and African states has increased by seventy percent in the last five years, with Sub-Saharan Africa having the strongest economic ties with Ankara. Turks are also investing heavily in African infrastructure, such as funding ports, railways, and the building of housing units. Overall, Turkey has been a remarkable source of support, investment, and technology in helping Africa to reach its potential and contribute to global growth and economic stability.
Be guided accordingly.
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Building BRICS: Why are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey considering joining the group?
