Dimensions & implications of granting Iran full membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organization
By: Ahmed Salam
Former Media Attaché to Egypt in China
Within a year and a half or two at the latest, Iran will become the ninth country to officially obtain full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which was officially established under this name in 2001, this new development in Tehran’s relations with the organization, was announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in his speech Through a video call to the twenty-first summit of the organization in the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, on the seventeenth of this September, he said: “We will launch the procedures to bring Iran into the membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,” a proposal that was welcomed and supported by the leaders of the organization. What are the reasons for launching the process of Iran’s accession to the organization At this particular time, the circumstances surrounding this issue, the extent to which Iran benefits from its accession to the organization, and the scenarios of the relationship between the organization and the Middle East region, especially in light of the summit’s support for granting the status of a new “dialogue partner” to three Middle Eastern countries, namely Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar?
* First: the reasons for granting Tehran full membership
It is important, before addressing the motives and reasons for the SCO countries’ ratification of Iran’s official accession, to address the circumstances that were behind the establishment and establishment of the organization, at a proposal led by China, as well as its main objectives, due to their importance as factors explaining the keenness of the SCO members to include Iran in it.
It is known that the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization” emerged from the formula of the “Shanghai Five-Year Group”, which held a series of meetings, the first of which was on April 26, 1996, through the signing of the Treaty on Deepening Military Confidence in the Border Regions by the presidents of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. That in Shanghai, China, and on April 24, 1997, the same countries signed the Treaty on Limiting Military Forces in the Border Regions at a meeting in Moscow, and in 2001, Uzbekistan joined the five mentioned countries to form together officially the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization”, which Expanded its scope of work to include economic, cultural, and security cooperation with the aim of combating Beijing’s “three axes of evil”: terrorism, separatism and extremism.
It is remarkable that the role and political influence of the organization goes beyond the Eurasia region to other regions of the Asian continent, but also outside its borders, due to the economic and military weight enjoyed by its members, and it has gradually expanded outside its narrow scope, by including other countries from the Central Asian region The main ones are India and Pakistan.
The main objectives of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are as follows: Strengthening the policies of mutual trust and good-neighbourliness among member states, cooperation in the political, trade, economic, cultural, science and technology, energy, transportation, tourism and environmental protection fields, working to provide peace, security and stability in the region, trying to reach A democratic global political and economic system, fighting crime and drug trafficking, confronting separatist movements, religious or ethnic extremism and terrorism.
The importance of the organization lies in the fact that it constitutes one of the international alternatives after the series of failures that Washington was behind, from Iraq and Afghanistan to Libya and the spread of extremism and terrorism, as well as with the failure to achieve any tangible progress in the international coalition led by Washington against ISIS, in addition to the important role The organization has to restore balance in international relations, by forming an alliance – some say – that it is parallel to political and military alliances that try to achieve the interests of specific countries, even if this is at the expense of others and in contradiction with international laws and norms.
In light of the foregoing, it is not possible to separate the organization’s decision to officially annex Iran to a group of important reasons, perhaps the most prominent of which are:
1- The recent developments in Afghanistan, in light of the Taliban movement’s control of the reins of affairs in this country, and these developments will have security and strategic repercussions on the neighboring countries of Afghanistan, including some of the member states of the organization, led by China, and these developments have strengthened the position of Iran is with the OIC countries regarding the presence of an Iranian supportive role for its efforts in this country, as observers believe that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, as well as the uncertain stability of the new Taliban government, have strengthened the issue of making Iran a full member of the organization, and Moscow was stressing the need to involve officials The Iranians in the Russian-Chinese-Pakistani-American Quartet Talks on Afghanistan, and from the point of view of some analysts, there is an awareness on the part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization of the importance of Iran’s role in facilitating a solution to the crisis in Afghanistan. Thus, accepting Iran’s full membership in the organization can help its countries to reach a common vision for the future of Afghanistan.
2- Supporting Iran in confronting the United States, and then trying to break the international isolation imposed on Tehran by the West in general and the United States in particular, against the background of US sanctions because of its nuclear file, which means – according to observers – that the organization’s countries support Iran and are no longer in solidarity with Iran The US position, which is considered a “victory for Iranian diplomacy”.
3- Granting full membership to Iran comes in the context of the organization’s tendency to expand its spheres of influence and exercise its role and influence beyond the geographical framework of its members, by extending the scope of this role to new regional areas, this time represented in the Middle East, which is considered a traditional area of influence and influence. The West, and specifically the United States of America, which may also explain the organization’s support for granting three other Middle Eastern countries, namely Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the status of a “new partner for dialogue.”
* Second: The implications of accepting Iran’s membership
In fact, Iran’s acceptance as a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization at this time has many implications, as it came in the wake of a package of important developments for Iran, both internally and externally, perhaps the most prominent of which are:
1- The election of Ibrahim Raisi as the new president of Iran in June 2021, and he announced in August 2021 that strengthening Iran’s relations with Russia and China, the two main members of the organization, is one of the priorities of his foreign policy, in addition to his quest since the beginning of his term to strengthen his country’s presence and position in the world , by strengthening its relations at the regional level, and benefiting from its capabilities, foremost of which is its geographical location, which was reflected in his statement during his speech at the Dushanbe Summit that “Iran can be a link to Eurasia through a corridor linking the north to the south.”
2- The Sino-Iranian strategic agreement, which was signed in Tehran on March 27, 2021, after a regional tour by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi that included the Gulf states and Turkey. discharge its oil production.
3- The shameful US military withdrawal from Afghanistan, a country that has been under US occupation for more than 20 years.
In terms of content, Iran’s full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization reflects, on the one hand, the growing role and effectiveness of the organization at the international level, through the interest shown by many countries to join its membership, and on the other hand, this accession earns Iran an important regional and international position in the face of those who see They are rival parties or enemies at the regional and international levels, in addition to being an important indication of the growing orientation towards the East in Iranian foreign policy.
Third: Iran’s expected gains from the organization
On the official level, Iran’s attainment of full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a diplomatic success for it, especially on the economic front, as it allows it to benefit from a huge market of 3 billion people. It will also provide the countries of the organization with huge economic and trade opportunities, and at the same time contribute to building the “Belt and Road” initiative. Also, Tehran considered that the current scene embodies the “establishment of a new world order where it is considered the Quartet of powers in the east (Russia, China, India, Iran). of the most important international players in this new world order,” and that “Iran’s accession to this organization, despite Washington’s opposition, proves that the era of unilateral policies is over and we are witnessing the establishment of a new world order.”
Undoubtedly, Iran’s accession to the organization will result in alleviating its international isolation by expanding its bilateral and multilateral relations with Russia, China and Central Asian countries. Membership will also lead to strengthening Tehran’s role in managing regional security.
In light of the influence and presence of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on the international scene, Iran’s permanent membership in the organization will bring it many benefits, the most important of which are: Iran’s growing influence in the security, economic and political equations of the region, increasing Iran’s political, security and economic ability to maneuver The West, especially the United States, has to ease economic pressures and bypass the American sanctions imposed on it for decades, expand and activate its presence in the field of energy security, enter a number of important markets in the world and enhance international trade exchange, banking cooperation where membership allows Iran to participate in the banking council In addition to strengthening Iran’s orientation towards the east through bilateral cooperation with China and Russia as well as India, strengthening 25-year agreements with China and developing port activities, especially with regard to Chabahar port with India.
In the face of these expected gains for Iran, there are many obstacles that may hinder Iran’s immediate benefit from membership, such as: the risks of investing in the energy field in light of US sanctions, Iran’s need to make many changes in the field of investment, foreign trade, product specifications and international standards, in addition to To develop its infrastructure significantly, in addition to achieving success in its bilateral relations with the member states of the organization.
* Fourth: Scenarios of the relationship with the Middle East
Granting Iran the status of a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization presents many scenarios regarding the future of relations between the organization and the Middle East, ranging from the growth of these relations, their survival, or their decline. In fact, the indicators on the ground indicate the possibility of these relations growing and heading towards more strength, and perhaps what supports this scenario are the presence of four countries that have the status of partners with the organization, namely Turkey (since 2012), Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar (2021). With the passage of time and the maturation of conditions, these countries will turn into full members of the organization, which will gain the Middle East region great weight within the organization with the presence of five of its member states, in addition to the strategic partnership relations that link China, which stands behind the establishment of the organization, and the aforementioned countries Which is expected to contribute to the development of relations between the organization and these countries.
In conclusion, Iran’s accession as a permanent member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization represents a very important development, as it confirms the emergence of Beijing and its growing role in the Middle East region strongly, and also comes within the framework of Beijing’s challenge to Washington in the region, and no one can predict what will be the future of the Middle East region. In light of the presence of the new China, these developments may push the entire region and even the world to enter into a new cold war.
